Day 32: Day-of-Week Analysis
Topic: Trading patterns by day of week
Date: 2026-03-13
Status: โ
COMPLETED
Research Question
Do win rate and PnL vary by day of week?
Data Analysis
Analyzed 416 trades from trade-journal.json:
| Day (IST) | Trades | Win Rate | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday | 114 | 70.2% | $766.80 |
| Saturday | 302 | 72.8% | $2,275.84 |
Finding: Only Friday and Saturday show trading activity. This aligns with US market hours (US EST afternoon/evening = Fri evening + Sat morning IST).
Key Insights
- US market hours = trading hours โ Prediction markets track US events/news
- Saturday slightly better โ 2.6 pp higher win rate, 2.9x more trades
- No Sunday trading โ Markets settle by Saturday, new markets start Friday
Recommendation
NOT DEPLOYABLE โ Day-of-week is a proxy for US market hours, already captured by existing filters. The finding confirms the bot is correctly capturing US trading sessions.
Next Steps
- Continue monitoring dry-run performance
- Plan for live trading transition