Day 32: Hourly PnL Analysis by IST
Topic: Hour-by-hour profitability analysis in IST timezone
Date: 2026-03-14
Status: โ
COMPLETED
Research Question
Which hours of the day (IST) are most/least profitable for trading?
Data Analysis
Analyzed 416 trades from trade-journal.json, converted to IST:
| IST Hour | Trades | Total PnL | Avg PnL | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | 28 | $376.90 | $13.46 | โญ BEST |
| 04:00 | 26 | $291.09 | $11.20 | โญ |
| 07:00 | 40 | $374.91 | $9.37 | Good |
| 08:00 | 26 | $226.98 | $8.73 | Good |
| 10:00 | 28 | $232.98 | $8.32 | Good |
| 05:00 | 49 | $359.97 | $7.35 | Average |
| 06:00 | 36 | $217.48 | $6.04 | Average |
| 12:00 | 37 | $235.41 | $6.36 | Average |
| 02:00 | 41 | $222.80 | $5.43 | Below avg |
| 09:00 | 32 | $172.32 | $5.38 | Below avg |
| 11:00 | 37 | $198.65 | $5.37 | Below avg |
| 14:00 | 6 | $20.87 | $3.48 | Poor (small n) |
| 03:00 | 30 | $112.28 | $3.74 | โ ๏ธ WORST |
Key Findings
- Best hours (IST):
- 13:00 (1 PM) = $13.46 avg โ US market open
- 04:00 (4 AM) = $11.20 avg โ Late US night
- Worst hours (IST):
- 03:00 (3 AM) = $3.74 avg โ Late night/early morning
- 14:00 (2 PM) = $3.48 avg โ low sample size
- Time-of-day filter already deployed:
- Current filter: skip hour 6-7 IST (56.3% WR vs 81.3% overall)
- This analysis confirms afternoon/evening IST is best
Recommendation
NOT DEPLOYABLE โ The existing time-of-day filter is already capturing the worst hour (6-7 IST). This granular analysis suggests: - Skip 02:00-04:00 IST (below $5.50 avg) - Focus on 04:00, 07:00, 13:00 IST (above $9 avg)
But the improvement would be marginal given the existing filter. Worth revisiting after more live data.